The Reorder That Never Happens

You spent £38 acquiring a customer last month. She bought a £65 product. Your gross margin was 68%. After ad spend, payment fees, fulfilment, and packaging, you made about £4 on that order.

Four pounds. That's the entire return on that customer relationship — unless she comes back.

She won't.

Why Shopify repeat purchase rates stay below 22%

Not because she didn't like the product. Not because your competitor ran a better ad. Because nobody followed up with the right message at the right time with the right offer.

Most DTC brands on Shopify have a repeat purchase rate between 15% and 22%. Category benchmarks sit between 30% and 40%. That gap — on a £2M brand — is roughly £240K in revenue you're not capturing. Zero additional CAC. It's already in the customer file.

The problem isn't product quality or email creative. It's that acquisition data lives in Meta, order data lives in Shopify, email data lives in Klaviyo, and margin data lives in a spreadsheet. No single system connects them.

How to calculate customer reorder probability by SKU

So every first-time buyer gets the same post-purchase flow. Same retargeting. Same sequence. The high-value customer who bought your highest-margin product gets the same treatment as the discount hunter who'll never return.

And 80% disappear.

The insight that changes this isn't complicated. It's knowing which customers are most likely to reorder, which products have the highest second-order rate, and which acquisition channels produce customers that actually come back. That requires connecting acquisition source, order economics, email behaviour, and margin data in one place.

Connecting acquisition, retention and margin data in one place

Without it, you're spending to fill a bucket with a hole in it. Every month, more new customers in the top. Every month, 80% of them leak out the bottom.

The brands that scale past £5M aren't the ones with the lowest CAC. They're the ones who figured out which customers to bring back and how much they could afford to spend doing it.

That's not a creative problem. It's not a media buying problem. It's a profit intelligence problem.

If you don't know your true contribution margin by acquisition channel, by SKU, by customer cohort — you can't make that decision. You're guessing. And guessing at £2M is how you stay at £2M.